Canon has been playing catch-up when it comes to mirrorless over the last couple of years, but other manufacturers should brace themselves: things might be about to change.
When rumors of the EOS R5 surfaced last week, many understandably assumed that someone was expertly trolling the camera industry. A 45-megapixel sensor shooting 20 frames per second electronic and 8K raw video seemed preposterous, but Canon Rumors was quick to double down, albeit acknowledging that the 8K raw video (since dialed back to just 8K) would probably not be straight forward. The rest of the specifications have remained consistent, however: 12 frames per second mechanical, dual card slots, 4K at 120 fps, and 5 stops of in-body stabilization. The announcement is expected to come next week with the launch thought to be scheduled for July of this year (see Canon Rumors for more).
If that rumor weren’t sufficient to get industry geeks excited, a second camera emerged merely a day later: an R6 is in the pipeline with very similar features. This would feature a 20-megapixel sensor but keep the IBIS, 12 fps mechanical and 20 fps of the R5. Video will be 4K 60p and this new body would be due to hit shelves in June, with an announcement expected in May.
A few weeks ago it was reported that a third full frame mirrorless camera might also appear that is positioned even lower in price and specifications than the current EOS RP, and a 75-megapixel mirrorless body has been slated for well over a year. And if that wasn’t enough, chatter about an APS-C version of an RF-mount camera is circulating, fueled further by the possible naming conventions that Canon seems to be employing: the R5 would take over from the 5D Mark IV, and the R6 will replace the 6D Mark II — it stands to reason that an R7 may finally be the successor to the 7D Mark II. A flagship APS-C ILC that shoots professional-quality glass without an adapter is currently a gaping hole in Canon’s line-up and one that’s been yawning wider and wider for some time given that an upgrade to the 7D Mark II should arguably have arrived in 2019 at the very latest.
While an APS-C announcement might yet be a while off, 2020 could prove to be a pivotal year not just for Canon, but for the industry as a whole. Canon and Nikon have been slow to the mirrorless game and Canon has a reputation for moving at a glacial pace. It is a hugely conservative brand that, despite its efforts to inject a little bit of spice by dubbing its entry-level models the Rebel, is not one to take risks.
Historically, Sony offers a stark contrast. Without the hundreds of thousands of sports and press agency photographers who pull gear off the shelf and just expect it to work, Sony has had a license to be more experimental. Arguably, it has rolled out technology that’s not fully developed, creating waves by launching gear that’s been at times problematic. Early adopters have been relatively forgiving over issues such as battery life and overheating. Sony was able to take this risk because it only had customers to win and very few customers to lose.
Canon has not had this luxury. It is a manufacturer that has a reputation for holding off on technology until it is fully developed, though this has shifted slightly since the launch of the EOS R, with incremental upgrades to eye autofocus offered via firmware updates. The legendary Cripple Hammer (hat tip to Camera Conspiracies) has been deployed furiously, however, as the ability to shoot video in 24p has been randomly flip-flopped across camera models, and autofocus is typically a luxury reserved for those who don’t want to shoot video in 4K.
Canon has long been criticized for not joining the mirrorless party — there have been compelling reasons for it to continue making the best DSLRs in the world — and Sony’s launch of the a7 III brought this into sharp focus in March 2018. Sony’s mirrorless technology had matured, and many issues were suddenly resolved. Suddenly, I could afford a full-frame camera that shot at 10 frames per second without having to worry about carrying 6 batteries. With Metabones and Sigma offering to adapt glass, it felt like 5D, 6D and 7D owners were ditching Canon in their droves. The Sony doesn’t have the soul (not to mention the ergonomics) of its competitors, but boy it was a lot of camera for not very much money, and still is.
Sony’s sharp elbows and aggressive pricing have transformed the market, but it’s long been assumed that Canon would retaliate — eventually. If the rumors prove true, and if the Cripple Hammer has been put on a leash, this retaliation might be about to arrive, and the resulting excitement would have you believe that Canon might end up releasing the long-delayed a7S III on Sony’s behalf.
The Single-Slotted Toe Dipper
In time, the EOS R may prove to be the Lorem Ipsum of mirrorless cameras, offering little more than a single-slotted toe dip. It is an amuse-bouche, though perhaps one that didn’t taste all that great and only made us wonder whether the chef was running late and had asked the pot washer to crack on without him. “Canon has a history of not always being first in the market with new technology,” said Go Tokura, Canon’s Image Communication Business Operations Chief Executive a little less than a year ago. “But we are very good at catching up, going beyond and becoming the leader.”
On top of these rumors comes a handful of interesting comments that coincided with the release of Canon’s financial results for the year ending 2019. Executives acknowledge the dramatic market contraction but openly state that they “see stable demand for professional and advanced-amateur models,” and these are reassuring noises for stockholders.
What’s more noticeable is the acknowledgement that it needs to rectify its market position. “Our line up is still insufficient,” the report notes. “In order to recover from our late entry into the mirrorless camera market, we have plans to launch a model that incorporates a newly developed image sensor and image-processing engine that offer even more advanced features.” Basically, to all those that think that Canon dropped the ball, don’t worry: that’s about to change. When translated from the staid, buttoned-down formalities of Japanese business-speak, these roughly translates as: “Hold on to your hats, folks. Shit’s about to get real.”
Many assumed that Canon would unleash something significant once it had done the R&D, but not many would have predicted 45-megapixels at 20 frames per second, dual card slots and IBIS. (Let’s leave the 8K raw video alone for the moment.) Once that’s digested, three questions emerge: firstly, what battery is going to support this level of throughput, especially with autofocus tracking? Secondly, will Canon have finally resolved issues regarding crop and autofocus limitations when shooting video? And thirdly, how much is this beast going to cost?
Hearing the news, some Canon shooters despaired, realizing that this might end up being an exceptionally expensive camera that shoots at a resolution that relatively few require. As if anticipating this alarm, the rumor mills responded in kind: don’t worry, a 20-megapixel version is not far behind.
Trying to take this all in leaves me anticipating one of two things: either Canon is about to reassert its dominance, a sleeping giant that is slowly emerging from its gentle slumber, or someone is playing an incredibly elaborate prank. If the latter, bravo sir. Bravo.
Is Canon playing the long game? If the R5 rumors are true, how will it be priced? Is Nikon going to shock and awe with something even more impressive? Will the Sony a7 IV then blow the R5 out of the water? Your thoughts in the comments, please.